Exit polling by Edison showed that Americans were more similar in their voting patterns this cycle than they were divided.
President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election was the result of demographic shifts that benefited Republicans.
Exit polling by Edison showed that Americans were more similar in their voting patterns this cycle than they were divided—the expected wide gaps based on gender, education, age, and race between Republicans and Democrats failed to materialize.
Trump ultimately was able to narrow these gaps vastly compared to 2020, concentrating on economic messaging that was compelling to a broad cross section of American political society.
Currently, the president-elect is projected to have carried all seven of the core swing states, bringing him up to a total of 312 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 226.
These charts show the shifts that gave Trump a second, nonconsecutive term in the White House.
Gender
This campaign season was unusually gendered in each campaign’s strategy.
Harris sought to target female voters, using the issue of abortion as a rallying point. Trump focused more on male voters, particularly young men, and appeared on podcasts popular with the demographic.
Thus, observers expected a substantial gender divergence that, ultimately, didn’t materialize.
In reality, Trump outperformed among both men and women, winning white men, white women, and Hispanic men outright and increasing his share among black men and Hispanics.
Education
In recent years, Democrats have made significant inroads with wealthy, white, college-educated voters, a trend that continued into the 2024 election cycle. Vice President Kamala Harris, in particular, saw an increase in support from this group, capturing 17.2% of the total votes cast for the presidential election. This is up from the 16.3% of votes that President Joe Biden received from white, college-educated voters in 2020, marking a 0.8-point shift. This increase is consistent with Harris’s targeted outreach to this demographic.
On the other hand, former President Donald Trump has seen growth for the GOP among non-college-educated voters across various racial groups. While Trump did experience a slight dip in support from white, non-college-educated voters compared to 2020—losing about one point—this change falls within the margin of error for exit polls.
Interestingly, where Trump lost some ground among white voters, he gained support among minority voters, including both those with and without college degrees. This shift underscores the complex and evolving dynamics of voter preferences in 2024.
Age
Traditionally, younger voters tend to lean Democratic, while older voters are more likely to support Republicans. However, in the 2024 election, this conventional pattern was upended. Vice President Kamala Harris underperformed with younger voters, particularly those between the ages of 18 and 29.
In contrast, former President Donald Trump made significant gains with younger demographics, winning outright among 18- to 24-year-old voters. Harris, however, did have a slight advantage with voters aged 25 to 29. Overall, Trump’s support among this younger group reached 43%, a 7-point increase from 2020.
Meanwhile, Harris made strides with older voters, particularly those aged 65 and older, whom she won outright. Support for Trump among this demographic declined by around 3%, with 45% of seniors backing the president-elect in this cycle.
Race
Historically, the Democratic Party has relied on support from minority voters as a counterbalance to the Republican-leaning white vote. In the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump once again dominated among white voters, a key factor in his victory, as they made up nearly 71% of the electorate. Trump garnered 40.5% of the overall vote from white voters, while Vice President Kamala Harris received 29.1%.
However, Trump also made significant inroads with other racial and ethnic groups.
His support among Black voters increased slightly, rising by 1% compared to 2020, largely driven by shifts in voting patterns among Black men.
The most notable gains for Trump were among Hispanic voters, where he saw a 14% increase in support compared to 2020, coming just shy of securing a majority within the group. This shift was pivotal in his performance in states like Florida and Texas, where he won by more than 10 percentage points—his first such victory in these states.
Trump’s appeal also grew among Asian voters, with 39% backing him in 2024, a 5% increase from 2020, further expanding his support base across diverse racial groups.
Trump Gains Across All States
The demographic shifts in the 2024 election helped Donald Trump expand his margins in every state across the U.S. Beyond securing a sweep of all seven key swing states, Trump also made significant gains in both traditionally red and traditionally blue states.
For example, in Florida and Ohio—once considered quintessential swing states—Trump won by more than a 10% margin. This was the first time any candidate had achieved such a decisive victory in these states since President Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide election.
In contrast, the shifts in swing states were more modest compared to those in states that were solidly aligned with either the GOP or the Democratic Party.
The chart below illustrates how these trends played out across the nation.
Blue States Shifted Most
Surprisingly, states that were safely blue in 2020—those that voted for Biden by a margin of 15 percent or more—shifted the most in Trump’s favor.
Across safe blue states, Trump gained on average 7 percentage points.
The most dramatic shifts were seen in states like New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.
In New York, Trump gained a significant 12% in support, narrowing the margin considerably. Vice President Harris managed to maintain a slim 11% lead, a far cry from Joe Biden’s 23-point victory in the state just four years ago.
Illinois, which Democrats won by 17% in 2020, shifted 9 points to the right. This year, Harris secured only an 8% margin of victory, signaling a notable swing.
However, the most striking change occurred in New Jersey. In 2020, Biden won the state by 16%, but in 2024, Harris barely held on with a 5% margin. This narrow victory positions New Jersey as a potential swing state in the upcoming 2028 election.
While red states also saw some shifts, these changes were less significant than in traditionally blue states.
In the chart below, we categorize states into three groups: safe states (those with a margin of 15% or more in 2020), likely states (those with a margin between 5% and 15%), and swing states (those within 5%). Florida is also considered a swing state in this analysis, due to its narrow 3.3% margin in the 2020 results.
